Risk assessment plays a crucial role in preventing violent extremism and terrorism. To ensure the effectiveness of risk assessment tools, it is essential that these tools are validated. The application of a scientific, evidence-based, valid and reliable protocol with indicators relevant for violent extremists and terrorists increases the ability of professionals to make more accurate decisions about this population. This is achieved through the application of a consistent approach, the ability to carry out reliable, repeated risk measurement for risk pathways and by criterion measurements that can record changes in risk-increasing and risk-mitigating behaviors over time. Scientific research has supported various types of validity for the VERA and subsequent versions for several age-groups, genders and ideologies.
The relevance and value of the original VERA tool was supported by research undertaken by independent researchers in the United Kingdom (Beardsley & Beech, 2013). Beardsley and Beech examined the applicability and appropriateness of the VERA risk supporting, risk mitigating and risk descriptive indicators in case studies of violent extremists and terrorists of different ages, from multiple countries in the world, with different ideologies and motivations over different time periods (Beardsley & Beech, 2013). This research confirmed that the VERA risk factors can be applied with the same accuracy both to terrorists operating independently of each other and to those operating in groups. The indicators were found to be significant and appropriate for violent extremists in the international context. Beardsley and Beech (2013) also reported that the protective VERA items were important for precise identification of extremists and for identifying individuals who are less inclined to carry out terrorism in the future. Although further research was recommended, most of the elements in the VERA were rated as ‘relevant and important for risk assessment.’
De Bruin et al (2022) examined the discriminative and divergent validity of the VERA-2R. Discriminative validity refers to the ability of a risk assessment tool to distinguish between groups that are expected to differ, such as terrorist and non-terrorist offenders. The results showed that terrorist offenders scored significantly higher on the VERA-2R than the non-terrorist offenders, confirming that the VERA-2R effectively identifies risk factors specific to terrorist behavior. Divergent validity refers to the tool's ability to show that constructs that should not be highly related are indeed not strongly correlated. In the study comparing the VERA-2R with the HCR20-V3, the results indicated that the VERA-2R assesses unique concepts not addressed by the HCR20-V3 further supporting its specificity for assessing terrorist offenders.
In 2025 a study on face and content validity in Australia showed that the indicators of the VERA-2R met the threshold of the content validity index (Cherney, 2025). Another important consideration of the study was that formally trained users appear to have better understanding of the tool and its indicators than untrained experts in terrorism, herewith emphasizing the need for certified training.
The user validity has also been supported in a EU-funded study (Overdulve et al., 2022). The findings indicated that professionals found the VERA-2R valuable for structuring information and facilitating a common risk language. They also emphasised the importance of intervision and refresher training to further enhance its use and application. Regarding the risk reports, the study showed that VERA-2R reports generally provided clear and accurate descriptions of the tool's indicators and that the tool contributes to high-quality assessments of violent extremism.
Recommended reading
Bruin, A. de, Duits, N., Kempes, M., & Prinsen, M. (2022a). Discriminative and Divergent Validity of the Violent Extremism Risk Assessment tool (Report). Netherlands Institute of Forensic Psychiatry and Psychology, Dutch Ministry of Justice and Security.
Overdulve, C., Duits, N., & Kempes, M. (2022). Evaluating Risk Analysis in Practice: User Validation of the VERA-2R (Report). Netherlands Institute of Forensic Psychiatry and Psychology, Dutch Ministry of Justice and Security.
Cherney, A., & Mulholland, T. (2025). Examining the content and face validity of the Violent Extremism
Risk Assessment–Version 2 Revised (VERA-2R). Journal of Threat Assessment and Management. Advance online publication. https://dx.doi.org/10.1037/tam0000263