Terrorism and violent extremism are global security concerns with thousands of annual casualties worldwide. Potential risks include the commitment and preparation of an attack but also inciting others and the dissemination of propaganda. These risks constantly evolve, as does the landscape of violent extremism. New ideologies arise and subgroups such as women and minors are increasingly involved in violent extremist offenses. Also the continuous, technological developments and developments in the use of weapons to commit an attack, necessitate a well-designed structure for risk assessment purposes.
General violence risk assessment tools for individual violence have been found to be insufficiently relevant to the specific characteristics of terrorists and violent extremists. Risk assessment of violent extremism requires an individual, structured and methodical weighing of distinctive risk factors for this population and should include the type, severity, nature and threat to public safety. The VERA-2R is specifically designed to support the professional judgment of risk assessment and risk management of terrorists and violent extremists.
The VERA-2R instrument and the SPJ approach are essential for professionals in a variety of settings, such as the judiciary, penitentiaries, law enforcement agencies, probation and security services which are confronted with the identification and evaluation of violent extremists and terrorists. The VERA-2R assists professionals to properly weigh, communicate and manage the relevant risks of violent extremists and terrorists. For these reasons the VERA-2R is being used by many different professionals in many different contexts throughout the world.
It is important to recognise that predictive validity for violent extremism risk assessment is impossible due to the low base rate of terrorists and the heterogenous nature of the population. Moreover, terrorists may change their strategies, commitment, networks and make unexpected decisions. This may also influenced by unpredictable triggers. Due to such triggers and other dynamic factors, risks are time and context sensitive. The evidence based structural method of the VERA-2R offers professionals a solid foundation for risk assessment with both static and dynamic indicators and avoids the pitfalls of judgments made on the basis of intuition and experience.